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After Touching Record High, Nifty Ends Flat

Thursday, January 29, 2015

NSE India: CNX Nifty — Daily Market Report for: Thursday (January 29, 2015)  
(Based on the activity of the previous trading day) by Dominic Rebello

Review of the Previous day:
The Nifty rose marginally on Wednesday (January 28, 2015) a net 3.80 points (0.04%) and closed at the 8914 point level. The market opened down at the 8902 points level. It then turned into a range bound movement until 11.05 a.m. The index then rose sharply and registered the day’s high at the 8985 points level at 12.34 p.m. It then declined sharply into the red and registered the day’s low at the 8874 points level at 2.38 p.m. The index then bounced back into the green and turned into a range bound movement until closing at the day. The Nifty witnessed a volatile session, moved in a range of 11 points and closed above the psychologically important 8900 points level for the second consecutive session. Sentiment was mixed and amongst the 50 Nifty stocks 26 were losers, 23 were gainers while 1 remained unchanged. Substantial buying was witnessed in consumer durables and oil & gas stocks.

Technical Analysis:

Volume (Qty shares) increased 7.89%. This change is small and indicates a moderate participation by investors.

Market Breadth:
Overall Market Breadth on the NSE was negative. Amongst all the traded stocks, 528 were gainers, 959 were losers and 35 remained unchanged.

Slow Stochastic Indicator:
The Slow Stochastic Oscillator has declined in the over-bought zone.
The Slow K line in the Stochastic Oscillator has dropped below the slow D line (negative and a sell signal). However, such signals are considered invalid in the over-bought zone.

RSI Indicator:
The RSI is above the 60 level and is now turned flat (positive if it rises).

MACD Indicator:
The MACD is above zero and is rising (positive if it continues). It is above its 9-day Average (positive).

ADX Indicator & DI Lines:
The +DI line is above the –DI line and both lines are diverging (positive if it continues).
The ADX is rising while the Market Index is flat. No signal here.

Moving Averages (Trend Indicators)
The index:

Is above its 5-day average (at 8830) Positive.
Is above its 15-day average (at 8528) Positive.
Is above its 25-day average (at 8421) Positive.
Is above its 200-day average (at 7806) Positive.
All the four averages are positively trended. Positive.

Overall Market Strength/Weakness:
The indicators and oscillators discussed here are indicating a strong market but with a neutral bias.

Support Levels:
For short-term traders the immediate main support is at the 8608 points level.
The next support is at the 8509 points level.

Resistance Levels
The immediate main resistance is at the 8989 points level.

Pivot Point Analysis:
For intra-day traders the support and resistance levels are calculated according to the pivot point theory and are:
Pivot point = 8924 (This is the level where the trend is likely to change during intra-day).
Support (1) = 8864.
Support (2) = 8813.
Resistance (1) = 8975.
Resistance (2) = 9035.

Outlook for Today:
On Japanese candlestick patterns the index has formed a doji pattern. This indicates indecisiveness amongst investors. The next candle formation will confirm whether the bias is towards the buy or sell side of the market.

However, the index is above its 5, 15, 25 and 200 days moving averages and all the four averages are rising and also positively trended. Further, the velocity parameters too indicate strength. Both these indicate a positive bias and the possibility of a further upmove unfolding. Investors are advised to hold long positions.

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