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Adopt A Wait And Watch Policy

Thursday, January 28, 2016

NSE India: CNX Nifty — Daily Market Report for: Thursday (January 28, 2016) 
(Based on the activity of the previous trading day) by Dominic Rebello

Review of the Previous day:
The Nifty rose marginally on Wednesday (January 27, 2016) a net 1.60 points (0.02%) and closed at the 7437 point level. The market opened up with a gap at the 7469 points level. It then declined sharply into the red and registered the day’s low at the 7419 points level at 9.43 a.m. The index then rose sharply and registered the day’s high at the 7477 points level at 12.26 p.m. It then declined and turned into a range bound movement to close the day on a flat note. The Nifty witnessed volatile session and moved in a range of 58 points. Sentiment was mixed and amongst the 50 Nifty stocks 31 were losers, 18 were gainers and 1 remained unchanged. Substantial buying was seen in power and realty stocks.

Technical Analysis:

Volume (Qty shares) increased 6.40%. This change is small and indicates a moderate participation by investors.

Market Breadth:
Overall Market Breadth on the NSE was positive. Amongst all the traded stocks, 643 were gainers, 506 were losers and 31 remained unchanged.

Slow Stochastic Indicator:
The Slow Stochastic Oscillator has risen in the neutral zone.
The Slow K line in the Stochastic Oscillator is above the slow D line (positive if it continues).

RSI Indicator:
The RSI is above the 40 level and is now turned flat (positive if it rises).

MACD Indicator:
The MACD is below zero but is rising (positive if it continues).  It is below its 9-day Average (negative).

ADX Indicator & DI Lines:
The +DI line is below the –DI line and both lines are diverging (negative if it continues).
The ADX is rising while the Market Index is flat. No signal here.

Moving Averages (Trend Indicators)
The index:

Is above its 5-day average (at 7376) Positive.
Is below its 15-day average (at 7479) Negative.
Is below its 25-day average (at 7637) Negative.
Is below its 200-day average (at 8100) Negative.

Overall Market Strength/Weakness:
The indicators and oscillators discussed here are indicating a weak market but with a neutral bias.

Support Levels:
For short-term traders the immediate main support is at the 7224 points level.
The next support is at the 7136 points level.

Resistance Levels
The immediate main resistance is at the 7436 points level.
The next resistance is at the 7608 points level.

Pivot Point Analysis:
For intra-day traders the support and resistance levels are calculated according to the pivot point theory and are:
Pivot point = 7445 (This is the level where the trend is likely to change during intra-day).
Support (1) = 7412.
Support (2) = 7387.
Resistance (1) = 7471.
Resistance (2) = 7503.

Outlook for Today:
On Japanese candlestick patterns the index has formed a second consecutive doji pattern. This indicates that the indecisiveness amongst investors continues. The next candle formation will confirm whether the bias is towards the buy or sell side of the market.

However, the index is above its 5 day moving average, which is rising. Further, the velocity parameters too are turning positive. Both these indicate a positive bias.

But, the index is still below its 15, 25 and 200 day moving averages and all the three averages are declining and also negatively trended. This is negative. As such these are mixed signals. Investors are advised to adopt a wait and watch policy, until a clear reversal signal is visible.

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