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Adopt A Wait And Watch Policy

Friday, January 15, 2016

NSE India: CNX Nifty — Daily Market Report for: Friday (January 15, 2016) 
(Based on the activity of the previous trading day) by Dominic Rebello

Review of the Previous day:
The Nifty fell marginally on Thursday (January 14, 2016) a net 25.60 points (0.34%) and closed at the 7536 point level. The market opened down with a gap at the 7467 points level. It then declined further and registered the day’s low at the 7443 points level at 9.20 a.m. The index then rose sharply into the green and registered the day’s high at the 7604 points level at 1.29 p.m. It then dropped back into the red and turned into a range bound movement until closing at the day. The Nifty witnessed a volatile session and moved in a range of 161 points. Sentiment was bearish and amongst the 50 Nifty stocks 31 were losers, 18 were gainers and 1 remained unchanged. Substantial selling was seen in capital goods, banking and realty stocks.

Technical Analysis
Volume (Qty shares) decreased 29.36%. This change is substantial but indicates a moderate participation by investors.

Market Breadth: Overall Market Breadth on the NSE was negative. Amongst all the traded stocks, 275 were gainers, 870 were losers and 25 remained unchanged.

Slow Stochastic Indicator: The Slow Stochastic Oscillator has risen in the over-sold zone. The Slow K line in the Stochastic Oscillator is above the slow D line (positive if it continues).

RSI Indicator: The RSI is above the 30 level but is now declining (negative if it continues).

MACD Indicator: The MACD is below zero but is declining (negative if it continues).  It is below its 9-day Average (negative).

ADX Indicator & DI Lines: The +DI line is below the –DI line but both lines are converging (positive if it continues). The ADX is rising while the Market Index is falling, which indicates that the present down trend is increasing in strength.

Moving Averages (Trend Indicators)
The index

Is above its 5-day average (at 7554) Positive.
Is below its 15-day average (at 7745) Negative.
Is below its 25-day average (at 7746) Negative.
Is below its 200-day average (at 8146) Negative.

Overall Market Strength/Weakness:
The indicators and oscillators discussed here are indicating a weak market but with a neutral bias.

Support Levels: For short-term traders the immediate main support is at the 7423 points level.

Resistance Levels: The immediate main resistance is at the 8345 points level. The next resistance is at the 8475 points level.

Pivot Point Analysis: For intra-day traders the support and resistance levels are calculated according to the pivot point theory and are:
Pivot point = 7528 (This is the level where the trend is likely to change during intra-day).
Support (1) = 7452.
Support (2) = 7367.
Resistance (1) = 7613.
Resistance (2) = 7689.

Outlook for Today:
On Japanese candlestick patterns the index has formed a small white body candle. This is positive and indicates that the bias has shifted towards the buy side of the market. Further, the index is above its 5 day moving average. This is positive.

However, the index is still below its 15, 25 and 200 day moving averages and all the averages are declining. Further, the velocity parameters too indicate weakness. Both these indicate a negative bias. Investors are advised to avoid buying at present levels until a clear reversal signal is visible.

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