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Adopt A Wait And Watch Policy

Friday, November 20, 2015

NSE India: CNX Nifty — Daily Market Report for: Friday (November 20, 2015) 
(Based on the activity of the previous trading day) by Dominic Rebello

Review of the Previous day:
The Nifty rose substantially on Thursday (November 19, 2015) a net 110.95 points (1.43%) and closed at the 7842 point level. The market opened up with a gap at the 7788 points level. It then declined and registered the day’s low at the 7765 points level at 9.40 a.m. The index then rose and turned into a range bound movement until 3.05 p.m. It then rose further and registered the day’s high at the 7854 points level at 3.17 p.m. and then turned into a range bound movement until closing at the day. The Nifty remained above its previous close throughout the session, moved in a range of 89 points and closed above the psychologically important 7800 points level.

Technical Analysis:

Volume (Qty shares) decreased 19.74%. This change is substantial and indicates a less than full participation by investors.

Market Breadth: Overall Market Breadth on the NSE was positive. Amongst all the traded stocks, 1040 were gainers, 405 were losers and 37 remained unchanged.

Slow Stochastic Indicator: The Slow Stochastic Oscillator has risen in the over-sold zone. The Slow K line in the Stochastic Oscillator is above the slow D line (positive if it continues).

RSI Indicator: The RSI rose and crossed above the 40 level and is now rising (positive if it continues).

MACD Indicator: The MACD is below zero but is rising (positive if it continues). It is below its 9-day Average (negative).

ADX Indicator & DI Lines: The +DI line is below the –DI line but both lines are converging (positive if it continues). The ADX is rising while the Market Index is rising, which indicates that the present up trend is increasing in strength.

Moving Averages (Trend Indicators)
The index:

Has crossed above its 5-day average (at 7796) Positive.
Is below its 15-day average (at 7916) Negative.
Is below its 25-day average (at 8040) Negative.
Is below its 200-day average (at 8329) Negative.

Overall Market Strength/Weakness: The indicators and oscillators discussed here are indicating a weak market but with a positive bias.

Support Levels: For short-term traders the immediate main support is at the 7711 points level. The next support is at the 7552 points level.

Resistance Levels  The immediate main resistance is at the 8057 points level. The next resistance is at the 8141 points level.

Pivot Point Analysis:
For intra-day traders the support and resistance levels are calculated according to the pivot point theory and are:
Pivot point = 7821 (This is the level where the trend is likely to change during intra-day).
Support (1) = 7787.
Support (2) = 7732.
Resistance (1) = 7877.
Resistance (2) = 7910.

Outlook for Today:
On Japanese candlestick patterns the index has formed a long white body candle. Further, the index has crossed above its 5 day moving average. Moreover, the velocity parameters which were negatively trended are now turning neutral. All these indicate a positive bias. Incidentally, these may be the first signs of a bottoming out pattern. A crossover by the index above the 15 days average will confirm the same.

However, the index is still below its 15, 25 and 200 day moving averages and all the three averages are declining and also negatively trended. This is negative. As such these are mixed signals. Investors are advised to adopt a wait and watch policy, until a clear reversal signal is visible.

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