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Adopt A Wait And Watch Policy

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

NSE India: CNX Nifty — Daily Market Report for: Wednesday (June 25, 2014) 
(Based on the activity of the previous trading day) by Dominic Rebello

Review of the Previous day:
The Nifty rose substantially on Tuesday (June 24, 2014) a net 86.85 points (1.16%) and closed at the 7580 point level. The market opened up with a gap at the 7515 points level and that level itself was the low of the session. It then rose steadily throughout the session and registered the day’s high at the 7593 points level at 1.59 p.m. The index then turned into a range bound movement until closing at the day. The Nifty remained above its previous close throughout the session, moved in a range of 78 points and closed above the psychologically important 7550 points level. Sentiment was bullish and amongst the 50 Nifty stocks 39 were gainers, while 11 stocks closed in the red. All the sectoral indices barring healthcare closed in the green.

Technical Analysis:

Volume (Qty shares) increased 15.16%. This change is substantial and indicates a wide participation by investors.

Market Breadth: Overall Market Breadth on the NSE was positive. Amongst all the traded stocks, 1131 were gainers, 426 were losers and 39 remained unchanged.

Slow Stochastic Indicator: The Slow Stochastic Oscillator has declined in the neutral zone.  The Slow K line in the Stochastic Oscillator is below the slow D line (negative if it continues).

RSI Indicator: The RSI rose and crossed above the 60 level and is now rising (positive if it continues).

MACD Indicator: The MACD is above zero but is declining (negative if it continues). It is below its 9-day Average (negative).

ADX Indicator & DI Lines: The +DI line is above the –DI line and both lines are diverging (positive if it continues). The ADX is flat while the Market Index is rising. No signal here.

Moving Averages (Trend Indicators)
The index:

Has crossed above its 5-day average (at 7536) Positive.
Has crossed above its 15-day average (at 7562) Positive.
Is above its 25-day average (at 7463) Positive.
Is above its 200-day average (at 6430) Positive.

Overall Market Strength/Weakness: The indicators and oscillators discussed here are indicating a neutral market but with a positive bias.

Support Levels: For short-term traders the immediate main support is at the 7043 points level. The next support is at the 6846 points level.

Resistance Levels: The immediate main resistance is at the 7497 points level. The next resistance is at the 7569 points level.

Pivot Point Analysis:
For intra-day traders the support and resistance levels are calculated according to the pivot point theory and are:
Pivot point = 7563 (This is the level where the trend is likely to change during intra-day).
Support (1) = 7532.
Support (2) = 7485.
Resistance (1) = 7611.
Resistance (2) = 7641.

Outlook for Today:
On Japanese candlestick patterns the index after having formed a doji pattern (indicating indecisiveness amongst investors) has formed a long white body candle on substantially higher volumes. In fact, yesterday's candle is almost like a white body Marubozu candle.  (A White Marubozu forms when the open equals the low and the close equals the high). Moreover, the body of this candle is above and outside the body of the previous candle indicating a range expansion and acceleration. This is positive and indicates that the bias has shifted towards the buy side of the market. Further, the index has crossed above its 5 and 15 days moving averages. The index is now above its 5, 15, 25 and 200 days moving averages. All these indicate a positive bias.

However, the 5 days moving average is below the 15 days moving average. Further, the velocity parameters are negatively trended. Both these indicate a negative bias. Investors are advised to adopt a wait and watch policy, until a clearer signal emerges.

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