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Short Term Negative, Long Term Positive...

Monday, January 09, 2012

If there is one man in the government, whose economic intellect, foresight and financial architecturing enjoys the highest credibility, than he, in my opinion is Montek Singh Ahluwalia, presently Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission. For over a number of decades this man has silently, from the background guided India’s economic destiny… and we are glad for it.

And when he says “"Don't get too worried about the short term slowdown… Around the world this is not a normal year. Therefore the current Indian economy must be viewed in that context,” we would take his word for it as it enhances our confidence for the future.

More so, because the man has always believed in calling a ‘spade a spade’. Frank in his views, he has many a times come under criticism for his outspoken views by his political masters. But that not withstanding he goes along unfazed and has most often proved right.

And now when he says India could be the world's third largest economy in next 20 years as economic power seemed to be shifting from industrialised countries to developing countries, it brings solace from the fact that a great future lies ahead for India, albeit in the long term.

Addressing a convocation ceremony of the KIIT University in Bhubaneswar, last week, he said "There are very important global changes taking place right now with the shift of economic power from the industrialized countries from one hand to developing countries largely Asia…We are not lagging behind everybody. We are just coming in second to China and people are looking at India. This is going to be some thing that will reach maturity."

He further went on to say “"There are many predictions that, say by the year 2030-2033, the largest GDP in the world will be China, second largest would be United States and third largest will be India."

As regards the present economic scenario, he reflected confidence while saying "When we approached to the 12th (Five-Year) Plan a few months ago, we had targeted about nine percent growth. I would say that nothing that we have seen right now suggest that nine percent is not feasible," he said. This statement is a great positive.

That being said, what does it mean for the common investor? In my opinion, and statistics have also proved, that long term investors, mainly with a two decade horizon have always made money in equities. So if you do want to take investment positions, take it for the long term. As the ‘Marwaris’ do, invest for the next generation, your family’s future might be better for it.

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