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RBI policy, macro data, global cues to dictate market trend

Monday, December 05, 2016

Outcome of the Reserve Bank's monetary policy review, macroeconomic data and major global events would set the market tone this week, say experts. Investors are keeping an eye on global events like Italy's constitutional referendum outcome (due December 4 night), which could determine whether the country stays in the Eurozone or not.

Other major global cues likely to affect market movement include US payrolls report and upcoming US Fed policy. On the domestic front, services PMI data is scheduled to be out on Monday, while RBI's first policy after the demonetisation move is due on Wednesday, December 7.

“The upcoming week is an eventful one and market will first react to the outcome of the GST council meet. Then, we have Nikkei India Services PMI data scheduled on Dec 5. But above all, Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) review meeting, which is scheduled on Dec 7, holds the trigger for next directional move,” said Jayant Manglik, President, Retail Distribution, Religare Securities Ltd. "Domestically, the big event next week is RBI interest rate decision, which will determine the medium-term trend for the market," said Rohit Gadia, Founder and CEO, Capital Via Global Research.

Moreover, developments in the Parliament's ongoing Winter session will also be keenly watched.

"We believe the market to trade in the volatile zone in the next week," said Abnish Kumar Sudhanshu, Director and Research Head, Amrapali Aadya Trading and Investments.

“Going ahead, apart from the Italian referendum and US nonfarm payrolls data, markets will be influenced by the RBI action on MSS as well as the rate decision in the ensuing policy meeting,” said Dipen Shah, Senior Vice President & Head PCG Research, Kotak Securities.

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