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Markets Indecisive

Monday, February 03, 2014

NSE India : CNX Nifty — Daily Market Report for: Monday (February 3, 2014) By Dominic Rebello

Review of the Previous day:
The Nifty rose marginally on Friday (January 31, 2014) a net 15.80 points (0.26%) and closed at the 6089 point level. The market opened up with a gap at the 6082 points level. It then declined sharply into the red and registered the day’s low at the 6067 points level at 9.18 a.m. The index then rose sharply into the green and turned into a range bound movement until 2.10 p.m. It then rose sharply and then registered the day’s high at the 6097 points level at 2.30 p.m. The index then declined marginally into the red but bounced back into the green and then turned into a range bound movement until closing at the day. The Nifty witnessed a volatile session and moved in a narrow range of 30 points Sentiment was bullish and amongst the 50 Nifty stocks 35 were gainers, 14 were losers while 1 remained unchanged. All the sectoral indices barring auto closed in the green. Substantial buying was witnessed in realty, PSU, metal and oil & gas stocks.

Technical Analysis:
Volume (Qty shares) decreased 20.46%. This change is substantial and indicates a less than full participation by investors.

Market Breadth: Overall Market Breadth on the NSE was positive. Amongst all the traded stocks, 939 were gainers, 502 were losers and 47 remained unchanged.

Slow Stochastic Indicator: The Slow Stochastic Oscillator has risen in the over-sold zone.
The Slow K line in the Stochastic Oscillator has risen above the slow D line (positive and a buy signal).

RSI Indicator: The RSI is above the 30 level and is now rising (positive if it continues).

MACD Indicator: The MACD is below zero and is declining (negative if it continues). It is below its 9-day Average (negative).

ADX Indicator & DI Lines: The +DI line is below the –DI line but both lines are converging (positive if it continues).
The ADX is rising while the Market Index is rising, which indicates that the present up trend is increasing in strength.

Moving Averages (Trend Indicators)
The index:
Is below its 5-day average (at 6109) Negative.
Is below its 15-day average (at 6235) Negative.
Is below its 25-day average (at 6229) Negative.
Is above its 200-day average (at 5971) Positive.

Overall Market Strength/Weakness: The indicators and oscillators discussed here are indicating a weak market but with a neutral bias.

Support Levels: For short-term traders the immediate main support is at the 5958 points level.
The next support is at the 5877 points level.

Resistance Levels: The immediate main resistance is at the 6372 points level.
The next resistance is at the 6424 points level.

Pivot Point Analysis: For intra-day traders the support and resistance levels are calculated according to the pivot point theory and are:
Pivot point = 6085 (This is the level where the trend is likely to change during intra-day).
Support (1) = 6072.          Support (2) = 6055.
Resistance (1) = 6102.     Resistance (2) = 6115.

Outlook for Today:
On Japanese candlestick patterns the index has formed a second consecutive doji pattern. This indicates that the indecisiveness amongst investors continues. The next candle formation will confirm whether the bias is towards the buy or sell side of the market.

However, the index is still below its 5, 15 and 25 days moving averages and all the three averages are declining. Further, the velocity parameters too are negatively trended. All these indicate a negative bias. Investors are advised to avoid buying at present levels.

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