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Market Volatility To Increase…

Monday, October 03, 2011

NSE India : S&P CNX Nifty — Daily Market Report for: Monday (October 03, 2011) By Dominic Rebello
Review of the Previous day:    

The Nifty fell substantially on Friday (September 30, 2011) a net 72.20 points (1.44%) and closed at the 4943 point level. The market opened down with a gap at the 4990 points level on weak global cues. After trading within a range, the index rose sharply into the green and registered the day’s high at the 5025 points level at 11.09 a.m.  It then declined and turned into a range bound movement until 12.30 p.m. It then declined sharply and registered the day’s low at the 4924 points level at 2.41 p.m. It then turned into a range bound movement until closing at the day. The Nifty moved in a range of 101 points and closed below the psychologically important 5000 points level. Sentiment was bearish and amongst the 50 Nifty stocks, 42 were losers, while 8 were gainers. All the sectoral indices barring consumer durables closed in the red. Heavy selling was witnessed in metal, realty, banking, auto and power stocks. Globally investors are still wary of the Eurozone crisis which may lead to a continuation of the increased volatility.
Technical Analysis:   
Volume (Qty shares) decreased 14.62%. This change is substantial and indicates a less than full participation by investors.    
Market Breadth:   

Overall Market Breadth on the NSE was negative. Amongst all the traded stocks, 472 were gainers, 923 were losers and 77 remained unchanged.   

Slow Stochastic Indicator:   
The Slow Stochastic Oscillator has declined in the neutral zone.    
The Slow K line in the Stochastic Oscillator is above the slow D line (positive if it continues).    

RSI Indicator:   

The RSI is above the 40 level but is now declining (negative if it continues).    
MACD Indicator:   
The MACD is below zero and is now turned flat (positive if it rises). It is above its 9-day Average (positive).    

ADX Indicator & DI Lines:   
The +DI line is below the –DI line and both lines are diverging (negative if it continues).    
The ADX is flat while the Market Index is falling. No signal here
Moving Averages (Trend Indicators)   
The index:

Is above its 5-day average (at 4942) Positive.
Has crossed below its 15-day average (at 4991) Negative
Has crossed below its 25-day average (at 4993) Negative
Is below its 200-day average (at 5496) Negative.
All the four averages are negatively trended. Negative   

Overall Market Strength/Weakness:   

The indicators and oscillators discussed here are indicating a neutral market but with a negative bias.   

Support Levels:   

For short-term traders the immediate main support is at 4690 marked as S1.
The next support is at 4450 marked as S2.   

Resistance Levels    
The immediate main resistance is at 5240 marked as R1.
The next resistance is at 5360 marked as R2.   

Pivot Point Analysis:   

For intra-day traders the support and resistance levels are calculated according to the pivot point theory and are:
Pivot point = 4964 (This is the level where the trend is likely to change during intra-day).
Support (1) = 4903.
Support (2) = 4863.
Resistance (1) = 5004.
Resistance (2) = 5066.

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