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Macro Data Points, Global Leads To Dictate Market Trend

Monday, September 14, 2015
By A Business Reporter

Stock markets will largely be dictated this week by macroeconomic data, Fed rate decision, foreign fund flows and global cues, while volatility is likely to keep traders on the edge, experts say. Besides, the progress of monsoon, movement of the rupee against the dollar, will also be key factors determining the trend on the bourses in the truncated trading week. The stock markets would remain closed on Thursday, September 17, on account of Ganesh Chaturthi.

On Monday, markets would react to the industrial production data for July 2015, which was unveiled after market hours on Friday, September 11. Driven by good performance of manufacturing and capital goods sectors, industrial production rose by 4.2% in July against 0.9% growth a year ago. "We expect a positive start of the coming week as the IIP data beats estimates at 4.2%, Religare Securities President, Retail Distribution Jayant Manglik said adding "the most decisive event for the global markets including ours will be the upcoming FOMC meeting, which is scheduled on September 16-17th."

Among other key macro economic data, the government is scheduled to unveil the consumer price index (CPI) data and wholesale price index (WPI) for the month of August 2015 after market hours on Monday, September 14. Factory output numbers released on September 11 and inflation data due on Monday will guide Reserve Bank on its monetary policy. "Any positive surprise from the RBI would help the domestic market to stabilize and stay put if not rise amid indecisiveness on global front," Manglik said and cautioned that volatility will continue to rule the market.

In the trading week gone by, the BSE Sensex advanced by 408.31 points or 1.62%, while the Nifty rose 134.25 points or 1.75%, halting a four-week losing streak. "For the week ahead market will be watching Chinese data of retail sales and industrial production due out on Sunday which might show how Chinese economy is shaping up. We expect market to remain directionless before FED meet and will keenly watch for FED's move whether it will raise interest rates or not," a Bonanza Portfolio report said.

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