India will overtake China to be the fastest growing large economy in 2018 and the country's equity market will become the fifth largest in the world, says a report.
According to a Sanctum Wealth Management report, when the rest of the world offers low growth and insufficient structural change, India, by contrast, is seen as a reforming economy with the prospect of strong long-term growth.
"India will become the fastest growing large economy in the world, eclipsing China. Indian equity market will jump to become the fifth largest in the world," the report noted. At a time when developed economies are cheering 2-3% growth, India is focused on breaching 7.5%, it said.
Moreover, India also benefits from a favourable contrast to other emerging markets. In particular, the fact that China is downshifting to a slower pace of growth. "Prospective returns for equities are much higher than the 6-8% that one can expect from fixed income," it noted.
However, if inflation or rates rise, markets are not likely to register further gains. Muted earning could also impact market performance. "Considering the fact that Nifty50 is in a broader uptrend, a sustained move beyond the 10,490-10,580 levels could lead to a rally towards 11,200-11,500 levels in the medium term," it noted.
As per the report, a major factor that has changed is that the domestic buyer now sets market prices. Domestic mutual funds bought equities worth USD 15.3 billion against USD 8 billion by foreign investors in 2017. The report that identifies various big-picture trends at play this year in the domestic and global economy, noted that Aadhaar, Jan Dhan, Demonetisation, GST, are working to create a new inclusive infrastructure in India.
"Given the rapid pace at which the Indian economy is developing, investors today are faced with the need to make crucial investment decisions amidst multiple cross currents, using a complex array of choices," Sanctum Wealth Management Chief Executive Officer Shiv Gupta said.