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Focus Will Be On CPI And WPI Inflation Data This Week

Monday, July 13, 2015
By Jayant Manglik

Jayant Manglik, President, Retail Distribution, Religare Securities Ltd.

After weeks of resilience, domestic bourses finally gave in to the global turmoil and slipped in red amid volatility. In absence of any major cues on local front, global issues mainly lingering debt crisis in Greece weighed on market sentiments alongside with sharp decline in Chinese stock market.
Though the first two sessions were somewhat inclined on positive side but selling pressure emerged at the higher levels as the week progressed and upheld till the end. The earning season also began in the passing week with result of IT major, TCS that failed to cheer the participants; however, positivity on broader front subdued the pace of decline in the final session.

Going ahead, focus will primarily on quarterly results and that would determine the next course of move in domestic equity markets. Some of big names like IndusInd bank, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Mindtree and CRISIL are scheduled to announce their quarterly results in the coming week.

On macro-economic data front, government will unveil CPI and WPI inflation data on 13 July and 14th July respectively.

Further progress of monsoon rains will remain on the participants’ radar. Southwest Monsoon is going through a weak phase since the beginning of July 2015, raising concerns that the RBI may hold interest rates amid concerns that weak monsoon may spike food inflation. The RBI's next policy review is scheduled on 4 August 2015.

Amid all these local cues, clarity on global front is also needed as ambiguity leads to weak momentum which fizzles out every now and then.

We have been witnessing Nifty trading in a broader range of roughly five hundred points i.e. within 8000-8500 for nearly three months and failed in its recent attempt to overcome the barrier of upper band of the same. With the beginning of the earning season and other lined up events, we believe markets will soon find the needed trigger for decisive breakout. Meanwhile, traders are advised to uphold stock specific trading approach but keep a check on position size due to prevailing volatility. On the other hand, investors’ should closely watch the prevailing results season and make the needed adjustment in their portfolios, if required.

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