The Indian equity market may witness volatility this week, tracking global cues in view of the ongoing trade spat between the US and China, crude oil prices, F&O expiry and progress of monsoon, say experts.
"Progress of monsoon is critical for market movement. Any easing of trade tensions between the US and China would be perceived as positive by the market leading to some pullback in stocks," said Sanjeev Zarbade, Vice President – Research, Kotak Securities Ltd.
According to Foram Parekh, Fundamental Analyst, Indiabulls Ventures, “Had the production increase been more than 1 mn barrel per day, we would have witnessed a steep decline in oil prices”. She said, with this outcome from the OPEC meeting, Brent crude will continue to hover around USD 75 per barrel.
“If Brent crude oil price surpass USD 80 per barrel then it will adversely impact our current account deficit and might soon result in another rate hike. "As long as Brent crude is between USD 70-75 per barrel, it will not have any major impact on the Indian equity markets which will, as a result, continue to remain a stock-picker's market,” Parekh said.
Mustafa Nadeem, Chief Executive Officer, Epic Research said trade war fears have been there and may continue to make a space in the sentiments of market participants.
“That being said, market has now adjusted to developments of trade war and it is now not seen as a risk on market, but basically on sectors that are directly affected by it," Nadeem added.
In absence of any major trigger, global clues will continue to dominate market sentiments. However, volatility could be seen as traders roll over positions in the F&O segment, said Gaurav Jain, Director, Hem Securities.
Rahul Sharma, Senior Research Analyst with Equity99 said stock-specific action will remain the flavour of the week in an otherwise dull and direction-less trading market where investors look for global clues. “Ongoing geopolitics will remain in focus and developments in trade spat between the US and China will be closely watched. On the domestic front, investors will now track progress of monsoon,” Sharma said.