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Gujarat: BJP on alert mode

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Govt lowers GST on various Gujarati products with a view to maintain BJP’s hold over the Gujarat hustings, even as it consolidates in rural Maharashtra

Even as Diwali, the biggest Festival of India is waiting at the door-steps of every Indian, the expected atmosphere of enthusiasm and gaiety is grossly absent all over. Yes, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party seems to be upbeat because of party's repeated electoral victories. In Maharashtra, the party continued its winning spree by bagging maximum number of Village Panchayats and thus exhibiting that the party's sway continues over the rural folk also apart from urban and semi-urban population. However, the main challenge to the ruling party is yet to come - the Gujarat State Assembly elections due in December this year. The two-month countdown to the Gujarat election is obvious now.

The BJP is gearing up to face the crucial elections for obvious reasons. After the GST Council meet, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley singled out "khakra" (Gujarati savoury snack) and announced the GST on it has been reduced from 12 per cent to 5 per cent. Man-made yarn will also see lower GST now, helping textile manufacturers in Gujarat. Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the state for two days last week. Another two Modi pit stops are planned for next month. It was Modi who had led the party to the Assembly elections in 2012, when it received a mammoth success. Modi would like to better the party performance in this election as he is elevated to the post of Prime Minister now.

Govt blinked the second time
Every effort is made by the state and the Union government to ensure that the State continues to support the party. This is the second time that the government has blinked in view of the slew of upcoming state elections and the 18 months remaining of Modi's term in office. Just days ago, the excise duty on petroleum products was cut by two rupees. The tax tweaks came after a huddle between Modi, Jaitley and BJP President Amit Shah. Jaitley missed a scheduled appearance at the World Economic Forum (WEF) meet in Delhi on Thursday. Remember Jaitley is the BJP's campaign in-charge of poll-bound Gujarat. Shah cut short his Kerala Yatra for the brain-storming session in Gujarat.

Business as usual and the party is on course for winning 2019 after repeating its victories in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, say BJP veterans and a certain nerviness has crept in after former Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha's stinging and detailed criticism of economic policies, which saw Modi offering a lengthy and ardent defense.

A senior leader like Shahnawaz Hussain was heard telling senior journalists "The PM is right - all of you in the media are spreading pessimism. I don't need to add anything to what he said. His speech has ensured that the media and the opposition have nothing left to say." On his party's Gujarat prospects, Hussain bosted, "It is the state of Modi and Shah who work there all year unlike Rahul Gandhi who wakes up only when there is an election. I can tell you that we will sweep Gujarat. The day we lose Gujarat, I doubt the sun  will rise in the east".

According to many surveys Gujarat remains completely committed to the BJP but Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have been flagged as potentially problematic. Himachal Pradesh is a possible win for the BJP in the last two surveys that Shah ordered in the past two months. It is to eliminate any chance of dithering among voters that the BJP has planned the Modi blitzkrieg in Gujarat.

It was planned earlier, it was to be two trips by Modi a month; now it has been doubled to four till the state votes. The medium and message for all the upcoming elections will be Modi as has been the case with even the Delhi municipal elections. Modi will be portrayed as a man on a mission against corrupt parties and leaders. Some of the slogans being tested are "yeh imandari aur beimani ke beech ladai hai" (it's a fight between the honest and corrupt") and "Fakir versus Shehzada" (a dig at Rahul Gandhi but if the Congress picks Jyotiraditya Scindia as its leading face for Madhya Pradesh, the slogan with the modification of "maharaja" could have its first airing there). Scindia is from the erstwhile royal family of Gwalior.

Sensed the taste of disenchantment
The top brass of the BJP has by now sensed its first taste of public disenchantment post the economic failure of demonetisation, the growing agrarian distress, shrinking investments, an utter lack of job creation for the army of young people joining the work force and a string of broken promises that are now being recognized as such, Modi and Shah seem hesitant  for the first time since their 2014 success. Hence the prompt response on GST and the switch to 24/7 campaign mode. Shah has reached out to the RSS and asked it to deploy its formidable ground strength for the BJP in all poll -bound states. Sources say that Yogi Adityanath who was recently tested as the new "Hindutva" mascot in Kerala will now also be deployed in Gujarat and Himachal where he will campaign on his pet themes of "love jihad" and the claimed oppression of Hindus. The mahant of the Goraknath math is a veteran at minority-baiting and dog whistle politics. Yogi being used as a campaigner along with Modi in the upcoming elections is tacit acknowledgement of the fact that the BJP is jittery about its "Vikas" (development) and "good governance" agenda and is returning to a sharper focus on the basics of Hindutva including and construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya.

The political scenario makes it amply clear and vivid that the road to success in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and particularly in Gujarat is not as smooth as was thought to be. Thus, the clever BJP leadership is driving with care.

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