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Rupee appreciation may take imports from China to over $61 bn

Friday, August 11, 2017

The rupee has appreciated significantly against the dollar and the Chinese Renminbi since Feb and if the trend continues, imports from China may cross USD 61.30 bn, a level attained during last fiscal, says a report.

The domestic currency has firmed up by close to 5.5% against the dollar since Feb on the back of a significant portfolio capital inflows of about USD 27.5 bn.

Moreover, the Indian currency has appreciated by 3.7% against the Chinese Renminbi since February, resulting in surge in cheaper imports from China.
According to SBI's research report Ecowrap, appreciation of the rupee against the Renminbi has enabled Indian importers to purchase larger quantity of goods at lower prices and if the firming trend continues, it will make goods from China even cheaper.

"If this trend of rupee appreciation continues, thereby making goods from China cheaper, our imports from China could very well exceed the level of USD 61.30 bn attained in 2016-17," the report noted.

The report further said with trade deficit with China constituting 48% of the overall trade deficit in 2016 -17, this is indeed a matter of serious concern for policy makers.

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