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RBI projects 7.4% GDP growth for FY20

Friday, February 08, 2019

The Reserve Bank of India yesterday projected an economic growth rate of 7.4% for the next fiscal, up from 7.2% estimated for the current fiscal by Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be influenced by growth in bank credit and overall financial flows to the commercial sectors, though slowing global demand could play a dampener, said an RBI document released after the three-day meeting of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The RBI had projected the GDP growth for 2018-19 in the December policy at 7.4% (7.2-7.3% in H2) and at 7.5% for H1:2019-20, with risks somewhat to the downside. The CSO has estimated GDP growth at 7.2% for 2018-19.

"Looking beyond the current year, the growth outlook is likely to be influenced by... Aggregate bank credit; and overall financial flows to the commercial sector continue to be strong, but are yet to be broad-based," the MPC said.

It further said that in spite of soft crude oil prices and the lagged impact of the recent depreciation of the Indian rupee on net exports, slowing global demand could pose headwinds.

 "In particular, trade tensions and associated uncertainties appear to be moderating global growth," it said.

RBI Governor and member of the MPC Shaktikanta Das said the risks are evenly balanced for growth.  The six-member MPC, headed by Das, also noted that the output gap has opened up modestly as actual output has inched lower than potential.

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