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Trade deficit may improve to $10.3 bn in Aug: Morgan Stanley

Monday, September 11, 2017

India's trade deficit is expected to improve in August to about USD 10.3 billion from USD 11.5 billion in July, largely on moderation in export as well as import growth, says a Morgan Stanley report.

According to the global financial services major, the moderation, on a year-on-year basis, is likely owing to higher oil prices and unfavourable base effects. "We estimate a moderation of export growth to 3.4% year-on-year in August from 3.9% in July and imports of 11.3% in August from 15.4% in July," Morgan Stanley said in a research note.

The report noted that gold imports are also likely to have remained strong in August at around 61 tonnes, though lower than the pre-GST levels of about 130 tonnes (USD 5.4 billion). Besides, non-oil non-gold imports, which is a proxy for domestic demand, is expected to continue to post strong growth.

According to official data, India's trade deficit stood at USD 11.44 billion in July from USD 7.76 bn in the year ago period.

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