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Macro data, trade war to set market course this week

Monday, April 09, 2018

Indian bourses this week will be guided by a range of domestic and global factors, including macroeconomic data, onset of corporate earnings season and trade tariff tussle, according to experts.

"Going ahead, the focus of the markets will shift back to earnings which are likely to kick start from next week...," Teena Virmani, Vice President - Research, Kotak Securities.

IT major Infosys will announce its fourth quarter results on April 13. Among other firms which are slated to announce their financial results are Reliance Industrial Infrastructure and Goa Carbon.

"Globally, concerns over global growth owing to trade war triggered by Trump tariff threat continue to remain. Escalating trade standoff between the US and China may continue to impact financial markets negatively," said Virmani.

Indian stock market witnessed gains last week as the RBI projected a higher growth rate for the ongoing fiscal and also lowered the retail inflation forecast going ahead.

Last week, the apex bank had raised the economic growth target to 7.4% for 2018-19 fiscal from 6.6% for the last fiscal and lowered retail inflation projection to 4.7-5.1% for the first half of the current fiscal.

"RBI's recent stance on cut in inflation to 4.7-5.1% in H1FY19 due to sharp moderation in food prices and expectation of normal monsoon will further help the market. Additionally, there is a hope that, start to the new fiscal will be better compared to the dismal end of FY18," said Vinod Nair, Head Of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

"Performance of Q4 result will be an important factor for the market... CPI inflation will be key macro to be watchful...," Nair added.

Retail inflation and industrial output data will be released on Thursday.

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