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Macro data, rupee, oil to guide markets this week: Experts

Monday, December 31, 2018

Announcement of macroeconomic data points, global cues, movement of the rupee and crude oil will dictate the stock market trend in the first week of the new year, experts said.

PMI data for the manufacturing and services sectors are due this week, which will influence trading sentiment.

Besides, sales data from auto companies can trigger stock-specific action, they added.

"Market is expected to continue being volatile with selling occurring at higher levels. International factors will likewise influence domestic markets.

"Macros are nonetheless favourable but political uncertainty, strained global geopolitics and brewing trade wars will act as a catalyst for the negative sentiment prevailing in the equity markets," said Jimeet Modi, Founder and CEO, SAMCO Securities and StockNote.

"Consolidation in oil prices and strong rupee will provide stability in the macros which will provide confidence for investors," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

The week went by remained extremely volatile for the domestic as well as world indices. The index ended the week with a gain of around a percent but still below the 11000 mark, said  Mehul Kothari, Sr. Technical Analyst, IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd.

Technically, for a broader view, we expect the markets to respect support of 10330 and resistance of 11000 and trade within this band. A move on either side of the band might dictate the major trend for the coming few months. For the upcoming week, 10740 level might remain intermediate support below which we might expect some consolidation. However, the trend would chance only below 10330 mark. At this juncture, we advise traders to remain stock specific but avoid over-leveraged positions, he added.

Investors will closely watch Q3 earnings, while global cues will dictate the direction of the market, he added. Earnings season would kick-start from the second week of January, which will keep markets busy.

During the past week, the Sensex gained 334.65 points to finish at 36,076.72.

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